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Example scenarios

Fixed time scenario

It is December 2019 and you want to identify people for a promotion to run in January 2020

To support a campaign that is promoting United States holidays, it would be useful to create a model predicting who will travel to the United States in the next month (Fixed Date of 1 January for everyone).

  • The training date could be set, for example, to 1 January 2017, to learn from people who went to the United States in the following month and, hopefully, identify characteristics in their preceding behaviour that they had in common.
  • The scoring date could then be set, for example to 1 January 2020, to predict which people to target, by scoring them based on how closely their recent behaviour matches the characteristics (behavioural features) of the people in the training data.
  • Define one or more Evaluation Dates in between, to assess the success of the model.

Event driven scenario

Who is likely to buy a specific type of insurance cover within 3 months of making a holiday booking?

For this campaign we need to study peoples behaviours around their booking date (Event) as opposed to on one date that is the same for everyone.

  • The training date could be set, for example, to 1 January 2020, to Identify people who made a booking on any date in the previous 6 months and then learn from their behaviours in the period up to three months after their booking date.
  • The scoring date could then be set, for example, to 1 January 2021, to predict which people to target, by scoring them based on how closely their recent behaviour matches the characteristics (behavioural features) of the people in the training data.
  • Define one or more Evaluation Dates in between, to assess the success of the model.