Behavioural modelling - setting analysis and evaluation dates

A quick reminder of some key terminology:

  • BASE GROUP - people you wish to compare the analysis group against.

  • ANALYSIS GROUP - a subset of the base group, identifying people who have already demonstrated the desired behaviour.

  • EVENT - a step along the customer journey, identified by the occurrence a particular transaction linked to the customer.

  • POINT-IN-TIME - this date is the starting point from which behaviour is analysed and can be different for the analysis and base groups. For example, the base group might use Booking Date, whilst the analysis group might use Policy Date, meaning you would study the behaviours prior to making a booking in the base group, but prior to taking out a policy in the analysis group. This date is normally the event driven date.

Scenario

Predict people who are likely to buy a specific type of insurance cover within 3 months of making a holiday booking.

It’s quite reasonable to assume that people buy insurance cover after booking a holiday, but not necessarily a specific type of cover, or with the same company.  Let’s imagine that the Holidays Company Plc has tasked you with predicting customers who will go on to buy the following types of cover within 3 months of making a holiday booking:

  1. Single trip

  2. Multi trip

  3. Personal injury

Firstly, decide if you will be doing fixed or event driven point in time analysis. See Behavioural modelling - selecting fixed or event driven points in time for more on this.

In this scenario, where customers will have made holiday bookings on different dates, event driven point-in-time analysis is required.

  1. Check the Event driven date for each: box

  2. Select a training date that you want your point-in-time to be near - in this example, 01/01/2022.

 

For related topics see Behavioural modelling - setting up the environment